Digital out-of-home is forecast to account for 76% of total UK out-of-home advertising spend by 2031, according to the latest edition of IAB UK's Compass report on the channel.
The forecast describes a market in which digital inventory is no longer a specialist extension of classic outdoor. It is becoming the dominant commercial layer of UK OOH, supported by expanding screen networks, programmatic buying, audience data and more adaptable creative.
But the direction of travel should not be mistaken for a promise that every digital placement will be easier to compare or measure. The report's most important caution is that standardisation and attribution still need to catch up with investment.
The figures at a glance
IAB UK reported that DOOH investment reached a record £964 million in 2025.
The movement from 32% to 67% over a decade is substantial. Yet the projected rise to 76% by 2031 is not simply a story of digital panels replacing paper posters. It reflects a broader change in what advertisers expect from OOH: faster activation, more flexible scheduling, audience-led planning, contextual creative and reporting that can sit alongside other digital channels.
- DOOH share of UK OOH spend in 2015: 32%
- DOOH investment in 2025: £964 million
- DOOH share of UK OOH spend in 2025: 67%
- Forecast DOOH share in 2031: 76%
Why programmatic matters—but should not be confused with digital
DOOH describes the screen. Programmatic describes one way of buying eligible digital inventory. The terms are related but not interchangeable.
The IAB report says programmatic still represents a relatively small part of the market, although it is maturing quickly. Its main contribution is not simply automation. It can allow campaigns to:
Those advantages depend on the transaction and delivery model. An open-auction campaign does not provide the same certainty as a programmatic-guaranteed deal. A DSP interface does not prove that a specific screen, share of voice or hour has been secured.
Every proposal should state whether the buy is direct, programmatic guaranteed, a private marketplace deal or open auction—and what is actually guaranteed under that route.
- Activate around selected audiences, times or contexts
- Change delivery more quickly than a fixed traditional booking
- Coordinate DOOH with mobile, online video, display or social activity
- Use weather, events, movement or first-party signals where permitted
- Optimise spend during a live campaign
The move from location-led to audience-led planning
Traditional OOH planning often begins with a location: a road, station, retail district or city centre. Audience-led planning starts with the people and journeys a campaign needs to reach, then identifies the environments most likely to deliver them.
This can produce a better plan, but it does not make geography less important. OOH is still a physical medium. Audience data should help explain why a location belongs in the plan; it should not obscure where the advertising will run.
A defensible audience-led proposal should disclose:
Without those details, “audience targeting” can become a label attached to an ordinary location list.
- The audience definition and data source
- The period in which the source data was collected
- How the audience was mapped to screens or geographic areas
- Whether the result represents reach, opportunity to see, impressions or another measure
- How duplication across sites and channels is treated
- What privacy thresholds and consent conditions apply
Why measurement is now the limiting factor
IAB UK identifies measurement as one of the channel's major remaining challenges. That is unsurprising. As DOOH moves into omnichannel budgets, buyers expect reports that can be reconciled with digital-media language and business outcomes.
The difficulty is that OOH exposure is not a personal ad impression served to a logged-in browser. One screen play may be visible to multiple people; some passers-by may not look at it; and modeled audiences depend on movement, visibility, dwell and other assumptions.
Planners should keep three levels of evidence separate:
Did the contracted ad run? Evidence includes play logs, proof-of-play, posting photographs, operating hours and outage reports.
How many opportunities to see or modeled impressions did that delivery create? This requires a recognized audience currency or a transparent methodology.
Did the campaign influence awareness, search, web activity, visits, sales or another business result? This requires an appropriate study design, attribution window and comparison method.
Combining all three into one “impressions” number makes a proposal look simpler but reduces its usefulness.
- Delivery: Did the contracted ad run? Evidence includes play logs, proof-of-play, posting photographs, operating hours and outage reports.
- Audience: How many opportunities to see or modeled impressions did that delivery create? This requires a recognized audience currency or a transparent methodology.
- Outcome: Did the campaign influence awareness, search, web activity, visits, sales or another business result? This requires an appropriate study design, attribution window and comparison method. Combining all three into one “impressions” number makes a proposal look simpler but reduces its usefulness.
Creative flexibility is part of the investment case
The report highlights dynamic, contextual, immersive and 3D creative as growth areas. Digital inventory can justify its premium when the creative uses the medium's flexibility rather than displaying a resized static ad in every context.
Useful applications include:
Not every campaign needs a complex data feed. Often the most effective improvement is a disciplined set of local or time-based versions with a clear fallback asset.
- Daypart-specific product or message changes
- Weather-responsive creative
- Event countdowns and live information
- Localised variants by city or district
- Sequential storytelling across a journey
- Retail messages tied to nearby stores
- Rapid replacement of time-sensitive creative
What advertisers should ask for now
The 76% forecast describes the market's likely commercial direction. It does not remove the need to interrogate an individual plan.
Before approving a UK DOOH campaign, ask for:
The growth of DOOH gives buyers more flexibility, but it also increases the number of commercial and measurement variables hidden behind a single line item.
- An asset-level inventory list
- Exact campaign dates and operating hours
- Screen dimensions and current specifications
- Spot length, loop, plays and effective share of voice
- The buying route for every inventory group
- Audience source and calculation period
- Proof-of-play and outage handling
- All media, data, platform, production and measurement fees
- A clear distinction between guaranteed and forecast delivery
- The agreed outcome methodology before the campaign launches